The conventional logic was straightforward: more bank accounts would lead to more credit cards, which would lead to more online shopping. However, the latest Global Findex data from the World Bank—the primary global survey on financial inclusion trends worldwide—reveal that in emerging markets this logic is being turned on its head. Financial inclusion is currently being achieved through alternative models of access and adoption.

Kenya serves as a striking case study. Over three years (2021-2024), the country saw a 10.9 percentage-point rise in financial account ownership, now reaching 90% of the adult population, while card ownership declined by 4.2 percentage points. There, like in other emerging economies, the path toward online consumption is being driven by mobile-first rails that bypass cards entirely.

"When you talk about domestic purchases, Kenyans don't really need a card. Not just credit, but cards in general," notes Wiza Jalakasi, Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Director at EBANX. "Actually, cards are the alternative payment method there, because M-PESA is so dominant."

This trend is echoed in the Philippines, where digital wallets like Maya and GCash have captured the nation's digital payments with a user base of over 90 million (equivalent to nearly all adults). Meanwhile, cards are used by only 21% of the adult population (18M). 

Across Southeast Asia, cards are often seen as tools for the elite, says Vladimira Artopé, Southeast Asia Regional Director at EBANX. International cards are even more difficult to access than local ones, which are already scarce in many of these markets.

"Credit cards are very exclusive because there is no credit bureau to underwrite the consumers. In some markets, less than 10% of people have an international card," Artopé explains. "There are more debit cards, but in countries like Indonesia, if you have one, it is disabled for e-commerce by default due to fraud concerns." This pushes even banked consumers toward wallets or QR-code transfers for their digital lives.

Lindsay Lehr, Managing Director at PCMI, anticipates that the current trend will persist. While she foresees credit cards retaining their prominence among the affluent upper-middle class, she does not believe debit cards will achieve widespread adoption in the region. Instead, she suggests the trajectory might go towards a wallet and account-to-account model, leapfrogging cards completely.

A parallel narrative unfolds in Colombia, where financial inclusion has itself decelerated, with both card and financial account penetration slightly declining from 2021 to 2024. The country remains structurally cash-first: 79% of Colombians still pay primarily in cash, while only 31% own a debit card and just 6% use it regularly as a payment method, according to a government survey. Digital behavior, however, is not absent—it is simply taking a different route. Account-to-account transfers are 15% of payments, and more than 60% of merchants accept them. 

It is worth noting that, despite the decline in card ownership, the number of card payments continues to grow, but at a much slower pace than electronic transfers: 15% year over year in 2024, compared with 47% for A2A over the same period.

This gap highlights a central dynamic of the Colombian market, where financial inclusion is progressing through account-based rails rather than through card credentials. For a large share of the population, the transition is not from cash to card, but from cash directly to instant transfers. In this context, expanding card issuance alone is unlikely to shift payment behavior at scale. 

Bre-B, the new national instant payments system inspired by Brazil’s Pix, is expected to play precisely this role. By enabling real-time, interoperable transfers, it aims to accelerate digital account adoption and reposition financial inclusion around account-to-account infrastructure. In Colombia, the next phase of inclusion is expected to be driven by instant payment rails rather than by cards.

“In Colombia, cards never became the default for everyday payments,” explains Nacho Carrasquero, Colombia Country Growth Manager at EBANX. “What actually scaled was account-to-account transfers, mostly through wallets like Nequi and Daviplata, because they were simple and immediate. Bre-B’s main advantage is that it can take this existing behavior and make it interoperable at a national level. That’s a big step for inclusion.”

According to Carrasquero, cards will remain relevant for specific use cases—they account for 41% of online sales, per PCMI data—but not as the backbone of financial inclusion. “They will continue to play an important role in e-commerce, subscriptions, and cross-border payments. But inclusion at scale will come from instant payments being accepted everywhere and working across institutions. If Bre-B gets that right, it becomes core infrastructure, not just another payment method.”

A different story is unfolding across other parts of the emerging world. In markets like Mexico, Paraguay, Panama, the Dominican Republic, Nigeria, and Egypt, cards are experiencing a robust surge in penetration.

“Central America and the Caribbean are card-centric markets. While there is development of APMs, they don't make up a large percentage of payments to date. The balance is really between cards and cash", says Alyson Grosshandler, Country Growth Director for North LatAm. 

This expansion is predominantly driven by debit: in Panama, Egypt, and Nigeria, for example, debit card ownership grew by over 10 percentage points from 2021 to 2024, providing millions with their first branded payment credential and a gateway to the digital economy. A similar trend is seen in Mexico. 

"We are actually seeing a shift more towards debit instead of credit in the Mexican market. That's been an interesting trend over the years", completes Grosshandler.

However, while debit serves as the entry point to the financial system, it also highlights the next major challenge in rising markets: the transition from spending an available balance to accessing formal credit.

Paraguay is a standout example. Credit card ownership tripled between 2021 and 2024, but still reaches only 10% of the adult population. A similar trajectory is observed in the Dominican Republic and Panama, where ownership doubled but only reached 21%.

The numbers showcase the chronic difficulty of granting credit in emerging markets. In countries marked by informality, such as many in Latin America and Africa, the absence of proof of income and the lack of robust credit bureaus create an access gap that the traditional system doesn't fill.

Bridging this credit gap demands innovation. India, for example, has chosen a hybrid logic. In a landscape where UPI (account-to-account national system) claims the lion's share of e-commerce volume, the dominance of instant payments hasn't stifled credit but is transforming how it is accessed. 

By allowing RuPay (India's local payment scheme) credit cards to be directly linked to the UPI system, India is democratizing access, enabling consumers to use their credit limits for transactions. This integration proves that ownership is only half the story. The true transformation happens when credit becomes as seamless and accessible as a real-time transfer.

"Interestingly, while UPI has probably eaten up debit card market share, credit card spending is growing," notes Rashmi Satpute, Country Director for India at EBANX. "There is a segment of people who prefer using credit cards for rewards, convenience, and chargeback protection. Another reason is that you can now link your RuPay card to UPI. That is driving credit card adoption and use on UPI."

This hybrid approach has positioned local credit cards as India's fastest-growing payment method in e-commerce, with a projected CAGR of 23% through 2028, followed by UPI (15%), digital wallets (9%), BNPL (7%), international credit cards (6%), netbanking (2%), and debit cards (1%). RuPay already accounts for 33% of all Indian cards, surpassing Mastercard (20%) and American Express (4%), second only to Visa at 43%.

While card-based methods have not yet reached adoption from the majority of the population in every market, their influence on digital commerce is undeniable. In fact, in countries like Argentina, Chile, Mexico, Peru, and South Africa, the share of cards in e-commerce volume exceeds that of alternative payment methods (APMs).

In Mexico, Peru, and Chile, cards (debit and credit) command over 63%, 70% and 80% of the market share, respectively, proving that they remain the primary choice for digital spending even as new options emerge. 

“In Mexico, we have a growing card traction and an increasing competition in the card infrastructure game. I anticipate more digital players and more digital-first issuers for both debit and credit. It is still really a card-first market in terms of digital transactions," says Lehr, from PCMI.

EBANX internal data shows that both credit and debit cards exhibit very high customer loyalty across selected markets, with more than 80% of users in most countries relying exclusively on them for making online purchases. Credit cards consistently deliver higher average order values in nearly all markets, peaking at USD 37 in Colombia and USD 34 in Mexico, with Argentina being an exception.

Even in Brazil, where Pix now holds 45% of the volume, according to PCMI, credit cards remain the second most popular payment method, accounting for 40% of sales (USD 166B). 

The new wave of card adoption is also being heavily fueled by the rise of local schemes. In markets where international rails are often considered too expensive or rigid, domestic brands are stepping in to provide a more localized offering. 

In Nigeria, for instance, debit card penetration jumped from 35% to 48% in just three years, a trend driven by Verve, the leading brand in the country, with 100M cards issued.

For Wiza Jalakasi, Verve’s success is rooted in its high-resolution local context. Unlike global brands that often deploy generic technology, Verve is adapted to the actual payment scenarios of the Nigerian market, such as reliably processing very low-value transactions and supporting multiple refund paths that align with local systems.

"Local schemes can be more flexible and aggressive because they know the market," Jalakasi explains. "The cost of issuing is much lower for local players, and while international brands charge for every interaction, Verve’s flexible fee structure is designed to stimulate mass-market adoption."

Similarly, in Egypt, the Meeza scheme has been created by the government in an effort to digitize the economy. “The continued push for the national debit scheme, Meeza, particularly for government payments (pensions, salaries, social benefits), brought millions of citizens into the formal financial system via simple, prepaid cards," says Karim Elbaz, Middle-East and North Africa Regional Director at EBANX.

One of the most critical insights for global merchants is understanding that not all card growth is equal. As neobanks and local schemes democratize access, they inevitably reach a different demographic, one that often carries a higher risk profile or lower credit limits.

Arthur Queiroz, Merchant Operations Senior Manager at EBANX, highlights a crucial trade-off: "It’s not just about the approval rate, it’s about the addressable market," he explains. "Local schemes like Elo in Brazil, Tarjeta Naranja in Argentina, or Verve in Nigeria might show lower average approval rates compared to a premium Visa or Mastercard, but that is often because they are reaching a population that global brands previously ignored."

EBANX internal data show that 56% of Elo card users rely exclusively on this payment method for online purchases, suggesting limited access to or preference against other options. While its approval rates are nearly 18p.p. lower than American Express cards, Elo remains competitive, with performance levels much closer to Visa’s (3.4pp lower) and Mastercard’s (0.4pp lower).

A similar dynamic is observed in Nigeria. Verve’s debit card approval rates are lower than Visa’s (by 6.6 p.p.) and Mastercard’s (by 13.8 p.p.). Yet, according to PCMI data, Verve accounts for 90% of the market share for online debit card purchases, underscoring how local schemes can dominate usage even with lower approval performance.

For an EBANX streaming merchant operating in the country, Verve reached 40% of card revenue in the first quarter of processing.

Queiroz suggests that merchants must adjust their expectations when entering these markets. While a "Black" or "Platinum" card might boast near-perfect approval rates, its reach is limited to a small elite group. Local entry-level cards are the engines of volume, even if they come with a higher frequency of "insufficient funds" or stricter fraud filters from local issuers. 

In emerging economies, a lower approval rate is not necessarily a sign of a broken system. It can actually be a natural side effect of high inclusion. "Premium cards will always approve better because the bank trusts the client more," says Queiroz, "but if you want to scale, you have to embrace the popular cards and the operational challenges, from insufficient funds to stricter scoring, that come with them."

There is also a structural processing constraint that global merchants must contend with. Local cards, particularly domestic debit cards and national schemes, with few exceptions, can only be processed through local acquiring infrastructure. This means that an international-only acquiring setup systematically excludes millions of cardholders who are digitally included but locally bound.

If cards have a feature that keeps them relevant in the face of rising APMs, it is the installment model. In Latin America, monthly payments are a cultural expectation and a vital economic tool. While Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) is emerging as a global trend, in LatAm, this functionality has been embedded in the card rails for decades, creating a level of trust and familiarity that third-party fintechs are still struggling to match elsewhere.

Installments fundamentally reshape consumer psychology around purchasing power, translating into a higher AOV. By breaking down a high, intimidating upfront cost into smaller, manageable monthly payments, they shift the customer's focus from the total price tag to the affordability of the periodic commitment. This flexibility encourages consumers to either complete transactions for high-value items they might otherwise abandon or to add more items to their cart.

“For a global merchant, omitting installments in Latin America can be a decision to ignore half of the potential market", summarizes Sebastian Fantini, Product Director at EBANX

In some sectors, installments have transitioned from a consumer preference to a strategic necessity. One global gaming leader in Brazil recorded that installment payments accounted for 40% of its TPV—peaking at 60% during major releases—while effectively doubling average order value (AOV). 

The model also functioned as a tool for acquisition and retention, attracting 17% of new monthly users and re-engaging 25% of lapsed customers. Furthermore, this flexibility allowed the merchant to sustain growth and preserve purchasing power even during periods of 20% currency devaluation against the Dollar. Since prices are established in USD, the merchant's ability to adjust payment options was crucial to mitigate the rising cost for Brazilian consumers as the Real depreciated.

This trend is validated by broader market performance. An EBANX internal analysis highlights a significant correlation between structured payment flexibility and sales growth: in Brazil, retailers offering installments recorded an average 20% revenue increase, with SaaS providers experiencing growth peaks of 22.5%. The impact was even more striking in Mexico, where businesses saw revenue climb by 41%.

As access expands through local schemes, debit issuance, and culturally embedded use cases, the operational profile of card transactions also becomes more heterogeneous. This does not introduce a new problem, but it gradually shifts how performance is experienced and interpreted.

Approval behavior, decline patterns, and processing constraints increasingly reflect local market structures. In this context, card performance starts to depend less on global standardization and more on how well processing models adapt to local realities.

This is why card processing in emerging markets tends to move away from standardized, one-size-fits-all models. When transaction behavior is shaped by domestic rules, issuer-specific practices, and local infrastructure constraints, global processing assumptions lose explanatory power. Success in these dynamic regions is more than a matter of technical connectivity. It requires behavioral alignment with both the local consumer and the domestic financial ecosystem. André Peixoto, Director of Operations at EBANX, emphasizes that while global rails exist, they often operate at a lower resolution when dealing with local peculiarities.

First of all, technical maturity varies significantly between borders. Peixoto points out that while advanced features like network tokenization and account updater have reached high levels of adoption in Brazil, other markets have found different ways to navigate security challenges. In Mexico, for example, major issuers rely on dynamic CVV protocols, which require consumers to access their banking app for a rotating code for every online purchase.

"If a merchant’s checkout doesn't explicitly guide the user through this rotating code process, conversion will drop immediately," Peixoto observes. "Performance here is as much about user education at the checkout as it is about backend stability."

Optimizing transaction performance also requires a deep understanding of local liquidity cycles and system availability. Arthur Queiroz highlights the "windows of opportunity" for recurring card approvals. In Latin America, for instance, paying attention to each country's salary cycle is the difference between a successful payment and a failed attempt.

"You cannot apply the same retry strategy to Mexico as you do to Chile or Colombia," Queiroz explains.

A sophisticated approach involves segmenting retries based on the decline reason and the time of the month. Furthermore, merchants must account for issuer maintenance windows. In many markets, issuers and acquirers perform system updates between midnight and 5 a.m. local time. Merchants unaware of these 'dead zones' often waste retry attempts on systems that are structurally unavailable, dragging down overall approval rates.

Given the uneven technological landscape, a single connection is rarely enough to ensure continuity. "The tech stack in these regions is fragmented," Peixoto adds. Connecting with a multi-acquirer infrastructure in each market ensures that if one acquirer lacks a specific capability, the transaction can be routed through a partner that supports it. This redundancy is essential for maintaining high successful transaction rates in regions where providers' readiness may vary.

Ultimately, card processing in emerging markets is a specialized discipline. It moves beyond simple authorization to encompass features like trusted MID channels, which route transactions through verified paths agreed upon between issuers and providers. This strategy alone can increase approval rates by an average of 5 percentage points, proving that, in these regions, performance is built on the strength of local relationships and technical alignment.

These dynamics reveal that card processing in emerging markets is a question of positioning, rather than of relevance. Cards are neither disappearing nor dominating by default. They are becoming specialized instruments within a broader, multi-rail ecosystem. 

Debit cards often serve as the first formal payment credential, while local schemes unlock scale among newly banked populations. Credit cards, on the other hand, remain the backbone for high-value purchases, recurring billing, and installment-driven growth.

For global merchants, this reality demands a shift in mindset. Success is achieved by embracing structural asymmetry: combining local acquiring to unlock reach, sophisticated retry and routing logic to stabilize performance, and credit-focused optimization to capture revenue upside. Merchants that treat cards as a monolithic payment method risk misreading both access and performance signals, mistaking structural constraints for operational failure.

Ultimately, winning with cards in emerging markets means accepting complexity as a competitive advantage. Those who invest in local infrastructure, understand issuer behavior, and align checkout experiences with domestic norms can transform cards into a powerful growth engine. In a landscape defined by diversity rather than dominance, the merchants that thrive will be those capable of orchestrating cards not as a universal solution, but as a precision tool, deeply local in execution, yet globally strategic in impact.

Success requires a deep dive into the technical and cultural nuances of each country, moving beyond global assumptions to embrace the local pulse of global payments.